Sunday, February 12, 2017

Auf Wiedersehen, 4th Reich

These are interesting times for me as an Englishman. Ever since the former UK prime minister, David Cameron, announced an EU-in-or-out referendum, the EU’s leaders, particularly those from Germany, have made an encyclopaedia of threats to the British people, designed to keep them compliant with a Germany-dominated continent. Indeed, Cameron joined in, too stupid to realize that he might lose. His own pathetic threats, codenamed ‘Project Fear’, echoed those from the EU until, spectacularly, they exploded in his face on June 23rd, 2016 and blew him off the political map.

Such intimidation betrays itself. Consider any single unit stating its intention to withdraw from a group. If, after so doing, the unit is destined to fail (and the group set to prosper), the rest of the group would say a friendly farewell and just continue to go about its business. If, conversely, it is likely that the unit would thrive on the outside, to the detriment of the group, then the group’s leaders would, logically, adopt a more aggressive approach. Would they not make threats, out of self-preservation, to try to thwart the unit’s secession?

The latter scenario is playing itself out. Why, because Germany is privately terrified. Not a week goes by without some EU mouth-in-a-suit preaching fire and brimstone to a recalcitrant British flock. Last week, it was the turn of the Bundesbank’s Andreas Dombret (Figure 103.1), who claimed, preposterously, that London’s eminence as Europe’s financial capital is on borrowed time.

Figure 103.1: Herr Dombret’s microphone ought to have been placed on the seat of his chair.

Copyright © 2017 Deutsche Bundesbank

Dombret either ignores, or is too myopic to see, the big picture. Whether he, Merkel, Juncker et al. will admit it or not, the EU is facing three existential crises. The first is economic and has several constituent parts. (1) The European Central Bank is still printing €60 billion, every month, in order for the EU not to descend into a crippling deflationary spiral. (2) Greece will require yet another massive bail-out in July. In truth, the money is required largely to pay back insolvent German banks and would have to come from seething German taxpayers whose patience is tissue-paper-thin. (3) Italy is hot on Greece’s tail but would be way too big to bail out. (4) Only Germany can make up for the UK’s soon-to-be-gone payments to the EU coffers. (5) Germany’s largest bank, Deutsche Bank, is circling the drain, owing to debts, corporate fines and its huge derivatives exposure. When it goes, the game is over.

Germany knows that the Euro has been advantageous to it but an equal and opposite disadvantage to Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal, where youth unemployment is approximately 50%. The single-currency straitjacket has presented Germany with a de facto weaker currency, making exporting relatively easy to its southern EU neighbours, whose exporting ability is curtailed. Upon Eurozone collapse, Germany’s new currency will rocket to its true value, destroying its export market and massively increasing German unemployment.

The second crisis comes from Merkel’s million migrants. With militant Islamist groups hell-bent on continuing their destruction of Europe from within, Germany’s deranged chancellor last year allowed more than a million opportunists (from all over the Middle East) to walk into Germany, and hence Europe, without any meaningful vetting. It was a Trojan horse but without the horse. Last week, however, she announced that those same arrivals are to be offered up to €1,200 (of German taxpayers’ money) to go back from whence they came. She, too, ought to be sent packing.

Lastly, anti-EU political movements are gaining momentum. Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland party is on the march. More prominent is Marine Le Pen’s Front National, which is on course to win the first round of voting in this year’s French presidential election. Meanwhile, in the Netherlands next month, Geert Wilders might well become its new, and virulently anti-EU, prime minister.

Wake up, all ye pro-EU fools: the Fourth Reich is heading for oblivion (Figure 103.2).

Figure 103.2: Ship of fools

Copyright © 2016

So farewell, Germany. Come what may, you are finished.

Copyright © 2017 Paul Spradbery

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